Cloudbursts: The new reality
What was earlier a once in a while phenomenon in Jammu and Kashmir has suddenly transformed into a routine. Not only is this new phenomenon of frequent cloudbursts damaging the topography of the region but it is claiming lives and damaging the infrastructure as well.
Earlier, the monsoon in Jammu and Kashmir used to arrive like breather — slow rain, swollen nallahs, and time for the hills to absorb it. That principle has changed. This year since June 1, the UT has recorded more than 20 cloudburst events. Fourteen of them were in Jammu division alone.
In Doda’s steep lanes, Kishtwar’s gorges, Ramban’s road cuts and Poonch’s upper reaches, we are no longer seeing rain. We are seeing water, slush and rocks come down like a dam breaking. What was once whispered about as a once-in-a-decade tragedy in the Chenab Valley is now part of every summer. The real question has shifted from will it happen to how bad will it be this time.
The answer lies in three forces colliding: a hotter atmosphere, unforgiving mountains, and human decisions that have weakened the ground beneath us.1. The weather itself has turned sharper
Ironically, Jammu and Kashmir is moving away from days of gentle rain to bursts of extreme rain in a few hours. Warm air carries more moisture. For every degree the atmosphere warms, it can hold roughly 7% more water. That water doesn’t fall in a drizzle. It gets held in clouds until it can’t, and then it falls all at once.
What we witnessed on Sunday, and is still continuing is a deep reflection of how bad the climate change has turned in this part of the globe. What we have been ignoring for the past several decades has come as a bolt from the blue, and the way it is damaging everything and claiming lives needs some serious thinking about how to tackle this change.
Rajouri, Poonch, Doda, Kishtwar and Ramban like many other areas of the region sit on young, fragile Himalayan rock. The slopes are steep, the river gorges are deep, and the soil has little to hold it. When 80-100mm rain falls in half an hour, as we saw in Poonch, Rajouri and Kishtwar- the water has no option but to race downhill, picking up mud and boulders on the way.
We certainly cannot control the clouds. But we can control how vulnerable we are when they burst. Cloudbursts have moved from folklore to forecast. The mountains are telling us the rules have changed. If we keep building and living as if they haven’t, we will keep counting losses every monsoon. It’s time we listened, planned, and adapted — before the next burst writes the same headline again.
Time to act is now and planners need to take note of this disastrous turn. Tomorrow we may be sitting again and wailing over the mounting loses and no plan in hand.
