Population, a big resource
India is a vast country. Its population is approximately 1.476 billion people as of 2026, making it the most populous country in the world. The population is growing at a rate of 0.87% per year, with a median age of 29.2 years. The country has a population density of 497 people per square kilometres.
Notably, such huge population is a huge challenge to manage as the country’s total population equals 18 % of world’s people with a growth rate of 0.9 % per year meaning that 13 million people are added annually to the population list.
Studies are suggesting that the country’s population is expected to stabilise by 2080 at 1.8 or 1.9 billion due to dipping total fertility rate, which is currently below the replacement level at 1.9.
However, India is undergoing a rapid demographic transition, with the birth rate dropping sharply over the past two decades. In 2000, our TFR was 3.5 and today it stands at 1.9. This is a drastic decline.
The fall in fertility primarily is attributed to increasing development and education levels. Increased female literacy has directly shaped decisions around marriage and childbearing, leading to smaller families. Besides, greater use of contraceptives and wider access to birth control measures has further accelerated the decline.
Notably, couples today are better informed and exercise greater control over when and how many children to have, besides late marriages and growing economic opportunities — especially for women pursuing careers — have also significantly influenced reproductive choices.
However, the increasing population is putting tremendous stress on the economy as well as other resources. The increased population means that the working age population (16-65) is also expanding but the jobs that need to be provided are not available that freely.
The country needs to create 12 million jobs just to keep unemployment rate steady. Besides, a huge strain is also put on agriculture, water availability and energy demand as well.
As of now the planners in the country needs to work on the high fertility in certain states (e.g., Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal) where the total fertility rate (TFR) is still above replacement (ie 2.1).
Besides, the declining mortality thanks to better health care is also widening the population pyramid. Though some socio-cultural factors like early marriage, preference for larger families in some communities need also to be addressed to stop the population reaching a level where its management becomes a challenge.
The underlying fact is that India’s population cannot be termed as a problem per se, but if managed well it is a massive human resource that can fuel economic growth. The real issue is balancing that growth with sustainable resource use, quality education, and decent employment so that the growth trajectory the government is aiming in the next 20 years can be achieved.
