After Rainfall, Kashmir Logs Massive Snow Deficit This Winter
Over 50% precipitation shortfall recorded
Thin snowpack raises alarm over water, crops and hydropower
Our Special Correspondent
Srinagar: A brief spell of rainfall this week may bring temporary relief to parts of Kashmir, but it has failed to offset what officials describe as a massive snow and precipitation deficit this winter — a shortfall that could have serious implications for agriculture, water resources and hydropower generation in the coming months.
According to official figures, Jammu and Kashmir has recorded a winter precipitation deficit of over 50 percent, with the period from October 1 to late February showing a shortfall of more than 54 percent compared to normal levels. January, typically one of the wettest and snowiest months in the Valley, remained largely dry this year. By mid-January, rainfall was reported to be nearly 90–95 percent below normal, underlining the severity of the dry spell.
While the plains recently received moderate rainfall and upper reaches witnessed light snowfall, the cumulative snow accumulation in the mountains — which acts as Kashmir’s natural water reservoir — remains significantly below average. Meteorologists say rainfall in the plains cannot compensate for the absence of sustained snowfall in higher elevations.
Independent weather forecaster Faizan Arif said the recent precipitation should not be mistaken for seasonal recovery. “The overall winter precipitation remains deficient. A single spell cannot offset months of dryness. What is concerning is the reduced snow accumulation in the higher elevations, which directly influences river discharge during spring and early summer,” he said.
Snow plays a crucial role in maintaining Kashmir’s hydrological balance. Gradual snowmelt during spring feeds rivers, streams and irrigation canals, replenishes groundwater and sustains soil moisture in orchards and agricultural fields. A weaker snowpack means reduced and shorter-duration meltwater flow.
Hydrological indicators are already reflecting stress. Several streams are running below their typical late-winter discharge levels, and soil moisture reserves in orchard belts have declined due to the prolonged dry conditions. Experts warn this could become critical during late spring and early summer when irrigation demand rises sharply.
An expert from Sher-e-Kashmir University of Agricultural Sciences and Technology of Kashmir (SKUAST-K) said winter snow is essential for long-term soil moisture recharge. “When snow accumulation is low, the spring melt is weaker and less sustained. This directly affects irrigation planning and can influence fruit size, quality and yield. Even if rainfall occurs intermittently, it does not provide the same gradual recharge that snowmelt offers,” the expert said.
The snow deficit also casts a shadow over hydropower generation. Many of Jammu and Kashmir’s power projects depend on snow-fed rivers. Reduced inflows during peak summer months could widen the gap between electricity generation and demand, increasing reliance on power imports.
Climate observers note that erratic winter patterns — including delayed snowfall, prolonged dry spells and warmer-than-normal February temperatures — have become more frequent in recent years. Such variability complicates agricultural planning and heightens the risk of hydro-meteorological imbalances.
For now, the fresh rainfall has revived lawns, cleared haze and brought a brief sense of relief. But beneath the surface, the numbers tell a sobering story: Kashmir’s winter snow reserves remain significantly depleted.
In the fragile Himalayan ecosystem, snow is more than a seasonal spectacle — it is stored water, agricultural security and energy assurance combined. And this winter, despite the recent rain, that reserve stands dangerously low.
