No Snow till December 15: Weather Forecasters
‘Is Kashmir bracing for harsh dry winter’
Meteorologists, glaciologists & farm scientists warn of ripple effects across water, farming and ecology
Srinagar: With weather models predicting no snowfall or significant precipitation till at least December 15, Kashmir is heading toward an unusually dry start to winter, raising alarms among meteorologists, farm scientists and environmental experts.
The India Meteorological Department’s extended outlook indicates no major Western Disturbance approaching the region in the first half of December, a period that traditionally brings the season’s first wet spell. The Valley last witnessed widespread early December snowfall in 2022.
Independent weather forecaster Faizan Arif said December’s opening weeks are likely to remain “dominantly dry,” adding that even if small disturbances appear, their intensity is expected to be “too weak to produce widespread snow.” “If this pattern persists, December may end with a significant precipitation deficit,” he noted.
Dr. Mukhtar Ahmad, Director of the Meteorological Centre Srinagar, said that current indicators show “no immediate sign of any strong system.” While he did not rule out late-December activity, he said the next 10–12 days will remain “largely stable and dry across Jammu & Kashmir.”
A Climate researcher from the University of Kashmir said a dry start to December has become “increasingly common” due to changing atmospheric circulation patterns. “Western Disturbances are shifting and weakening. If December stays dry, it reduces the snowpack that sustains our rivers in summer,” he said.
Hydrologist Dr. Shakil Romshoo warned that a prolonged dry spell at the start of winter could escalate water stress.
“We’ve already entered December with deficit autumn rainfall. If the month continues this way, river discharge and groundwater recharge will face early-season pressure,” he said.
Farm scientists share similar concerns. A horticulture expert at SKUAST-K, said an extended dry spell may affect chilling accumulation in apple orchards.
“Orchards need sustained cold and moisture. A dry, mildly cold December can disturb the physiological cycle of fruit trees,” he said.
Environmental observers say the pattern also has implications for glaciers. A senior scientist from the Snow and Avalanche Study Establishment (SASE) said the slow start to winter results in “delayed and reduced snow cover,” which directly affects long-term glacier mass balance.
For now, the only certainty is that Kashmir will remain dry for the next fortnight. Whether December turns around in its second half will determine how severely winter 2025 will shape the Valley’s water, farming and ecological outlook.
