The increase in temperatures
Given the experiences of past several years, the world it seems is heading towards witnessing increase in the number of hot days during a year. As of now the world is on track to add nearly two months of dangerous superhot days each year by the end of the century, with poorer small nations hit far more often than the biggest carbon-polluting countries.
A study conducted by the international collection of climate scientists, World Weather Attribution and the US-based Climate Central teamed up to study heat waves using computer simulations to calculate just how much of a difference the landmark accord has made in terms of one of the biggest climate effects on people.
The report calculated how many superhot days the world and more than 200 countries got in 2015, how many Earth gets now and what’s projected in two future scenarios.
One scenario is if countries fulfill their promises to curb emissions and by the year 2100 the world warms 2.6 Celsius (4.7 Fahrenheit) above preindustrial times. That adds 57 superhot days to what Earth gets now, according to the study. The other scenario is the 4 C (7.2 F) of warming that the world had been on track to hit before the Paris agreement. The study found that would double the number of additional hot days.
The study defines superhot days for each location as days that are warmer than 90% of the comparable dates between 1991 and 2020. Since 2015, the world has already added 11 superhot days on average.
More than anything, the data shows how unfair the effects of climate change seem, even under the less extreme of the two scenarios. The scientists broke down how many extra superhot days are expected for each country by the end of the century under the scenario.
The 10 countries that will see the biggest increases in those dangerous heat days are nearly all small and dependent on the ocean, including the Solomon Islands, Samoa, Panama and Indonesia. Panama, for example, can expect 149 extra superhot days.
Altogether the top 10 of those countries produced only 1% of the heat-trapping gases now in the air but will get nearly 13% of the additional superhot days.
But top carbon polluting countries, the United States, China and India are predicted to get only between 23 and 30 extra superhot days. Though these countries are responsible for 42% of the carbon dioxide in the air, but are getting less than 1% of the additional superhot days.
However, one silver lining the report mentions is that the world is no longer on the 4-degree warming pre-Paris trajectory. Though this cannot be called a major achievement, but efforts to curb emissions of heat-trapping gases that started 10 years ago with the Paris climate agreement have had a significant effect.
Without them Earth would be heading to an additional 114 days a year of those deadly extra hot days, which the present study also mentions
