Winds of change blow in Dhaka
Dr. Priyanka Saurabh
The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), led by Tarique Rahman, won a historic victory with a landslide majority in the recent general elections in Bangladesh. Returning to politics after a seventeen-year exile, Tarique Rahman carried forward the political legacy of his mother and former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia, securing the party over two-thirds of the seats.
This victory is not only an electoral success but also signals a major realignment of the balance of power in Bangladeshi politics and the beginning of a new political era. For India, this outcome brings opportunities as well as several strategic uncertainties, the management of which will determine the direction of bilateral relations in the years to come.
For over a decade and a half, Bangladesh’s politics were dominated by the Awami League and Sheikh Hasina. This period saw stability, economic growth, and regional cooperation, but also persistent accusations of centralization of power, suppression of opposition, and weakening of democratic institutions.
The prolonged dominance of a single political party led to administrative fatigue and a desire for change among voters. The BNP’s victory can be seen as a result of this widespread public discontent and the search for political alternatives.
Tarique Rahman has long been an influential but controversial figure in Bangladeshi politics. During his exile, he faced allegations of corruption, abuse of power, and links with radical elements, tarnishing his image. However, after returning home from London in December 2015, he signaled a shift in his political outlook.
He restructured the party organization, promoted young leadership, and revived the grassroots mass movement. He converted his exile experiences into political capital and re-established the BNP electorally. In this context, this victory is seen not only as an extension of the family legacy, but also as a testament to strategic realignment, organizational discipline, and an ability to understand changing political realities.
The BNP presented economic reforms, corruption eradication, and minority protection as its key election issues in the 13th general election. Issues such as unemployment, inflation, and lack of transparency in governance deeply resonated with voters.
The party attempted to distance itself from its traditional hardline image and assured security to all minorities, including the Hindu community. This mandate underscored that voters prioritized change after years of political dominance and administrative fatigue. The transition of power through a democratic process also signaled that Bangladeshi society expects stability as well as accountable governance.
From India’s perspective, the BNP’s victory sends mixed signals. Historically, India’s relations with the Awami League government have been more comfortable and stable. The Sheikh Hasina government maintained close coordination with India on border management, counter-terrorism cooperation, and connectivity projects.
In contrast, New Delhi has always been suspicious of the BNP, particularly due to the experiences of its 2001–06 tenure. However, in recent years, Tarique Rahman has indicated a relatively balanced and pragmatic approach towards India. India’s informal “green signal” to the BNP before the elections reflects this changing approach. It indicates that India is now willing to adopt a policy of multi-faceted dialogue rather than relying on any single party in Bangladesh’s internal politics.
Economically, the BNP government could open new opportunities for India. Bangladesh is a major trading partner and a key pillar of India’s “Neighborhood First” policy in South Asia. Bilateral trade is expected to reach $20 billion under the new government.
Cooperation could gain new momentum in areas such as connectivity projects, hydropower cooperation, border trade, digital connectivity, and industrial investment. Bangladesh’s rapidly growing economy presents attractive opportunities for Indian investment. The BNP’s public commitment to protecting minority interests somewhat alleviates India’s social and political concerns.
Nevertheless, uncertainties remain. The BNP has been accused of being soft on radical elements, and caution is necessary regarding the role of organizations like Jamaat-e-Islami. Past corruption allegations against Tariq Rahman, alleged links with Pakistan, and recent incidents of communal violence raise India’s security concerns. The risks associated with infiltration, smuggling, human trafficking, and terrorism along the India-Bangladesh border have not been completely eliminated. Without concrete and transparent action on these issues, bilateral trust could be affected.
The impact of the change of power in Bangladesh is not limited to India-Bangladesh relations, but will also impact broader South Asian geopolitics. China and Pakistan are constantly seeking to expand their influence in the region. Therefore, it will be essential for India to maintain a strong economic and strategic partnership with Bangladesh to ensure that the regional power balance does not shift in India’s favor. Dialogue and cooperation can be strengthened through multilateral forums and sub-regional cooperation initiatives.
In such a scenario, it will be imperative for India to adopt a balanced and proactive diplomacy. Maintaining long-standing ties with the Awami League while engaging with the BNP government is in India’s long-term interest. Institutionalized and multi-party engagement, rather than unilateral orientation, will provide India with greater strategic flexibility.
India should neither ignore nor over-intervene on issues of human rights, minority protection, and democratic values. Only a prudent balance can maintain India’s effectiveness.
The victory of the BNP under Tarique Rahman is neither entirely risky nor entirely opportune for India. This is a transitional period in which, through vigilance, dialogue, and pragmatic diplomacy, India can not only safeguard its interests but also steer India-Bangladesh relations towards a new and more mature direction. If uncertainties are effectively managed and areas of cooperation are strengthened, this political transition can strengthen not only bilateral relations but also the prospects for stability and cooperation across South Asia.
(The author is a PhD in Political Science. She writes for various publications)
