Strong Western Disturbance Set to Blanket J&K in Snow on Jan 22 night
Sharp temperature drop expected as cold air mass sweeps in from the west; travel disruption, slippery roads likely
Our Special Correspondent
Srinagar: Jammu and Kashmir is bracing for a powerful winter spell as a strong Western Disturbance (WD) is expected to impact the Union Territory from January 22, bringing widespread rain and snow, with a high likelihood of snowfall even across the plains.
According to weather assessments, the system will begin affecting higher reaches from the morning or afternoon of January 22, gradually intensifying and spreading across most parts of J&K by night. The peak impact is expected between the night of January 22 and the afternoon or evening of January 23, when precipitation intensity is likely to be at its strongest.
While weather models have shown some fluctuations regarding precipitation intensity over the past two days, the overall signal has remained consistent, pointing towards a significant winter event. Meteorological conditions are increasingly favourable, with temperatures expected to stay well within the range required for snowfall, even in lower elevations.
Independent weather forecaster Faizan Arif said the setup is particularly conducive for snow accumulation. “We are seeing a rare combination of moderate to heavy precipitation coinciding with very favourable temperatures. This significantly raises the chances of widespread snowfall in plains, especially during the night hours of January 22,” he said.
He added that the snowfall is likely to be dry in nature due to strong cold air support. “Dry snow accumulates much faster than wet snow. Even moderate precipitation can lead to substantial accumulation, which is why this system needs close monitoring,” Arif noted.
In the Jammu region, higher altitude districts including Doda, Poonch, Kishtwar and Ramban are likely to witness good snowfall, while the plains of Jammu may experience moderate rain, with the possibility of heavy spells in some pockets. Areas near the Pir Panjal range are expected to bear the brunt of the system.
Alongside precipitation, a cold air mass travelling from the west is expected to trigger a sharp drop in temperatures, particularly during the night of January 23. With winds likely to turn calm after the system passes, conditions may become ideal for intense radiational cooling, pushing night temperatures significantly lower, especially if fresh snow-cover forms.
Faizan Arif cautioned that post-snowfall conditions could be hazardous. “If snowfall occurs in plains, roads will turn extremely slippery due to fresh snow and subsequent freezing. Even daytime conditions on January 23 may remain treacherous,” he said.
Authorities and residents have been advised to remain cautious, especially along the Jammu–Srinagar National Highway, where landslides and shooting stones are likely during and after the precipitation spell. The Ramban sector, in particular, may become slippery due to snow and ice accumulation.
People living in higher reaches have been advised to clear snow from rooftops to prevent structural damage, while travellers should be prepared for possible flight and train disruptions due to adverse weather.
Weather experts say a fresh forecast update will be issued on the morning of January 22, which will provide clearer details on snowfall distribution and precipitation intensity. For now, with forecast confidence placed at around 75 percent, Jammu and Kashmir appears set for one of the season’s most impactful winter spells.
