Kashmir Forecasts Fall Flat as Weather Models Miss the Mark
Dry plains and light snowfall in upper reaches expose growing gaps in weather prediction models over the Valley
Our Special Correspondent
Srinagar: Weather prediction models came under sharp scrutiny in Kashmir as a widely forecast western disturbance passed through the Valley without delivering the promised rain and snowfall, once again exposing the limitations of existing forecasting systems in the region.
Model-based forecasts by the Meteorological Department had raised expectations of rain in the plains and moderate to heavy snowfall in the upper reaches. Contrary to these projections, most low-lying areas of Kashmir remained dry, while higher altitudes witnessed only light and scattered snowfall, far below expectations.
The failure has drawn sharp reactions from stakeholders, particularly in the tourism sector. Veteran hotelier Ghulam Hassan Wani of Gulmarg said the repeated overestimation of snowfall has become a concern.
“Every time there is a prediction of heavy snowfall, tourists plan accordingly. But when nothing happens, it affects credibility. This time also, there was talk of a major snow spell, but we saw only light snow,” he said.
Echoing similar sentiments, Abdul Rashid Dar, an elderly hotelier from Pahalgam with over four decades in the trade, said forecasts no longer match ground reality.
“Earlier, predictions used to be closer to what we actually saw. Now there is heavy prediction but hardly any snowfall. It creates confusion for visitors and those of us running hotels,” he remarked.
In Sonamarg, senior hotel operator Mohammad Shafi Mir said inaccurate forecasts complicate operations. “We prepare for road closures and heavy snow as per predictions. When models fail, it not only impacts business planning but also tourist confidence,” he said.
Meteorologists attribute the mismatch to the inability of existing numerical models to accurately simulate Kashmir’s complex topography. Experts note that western disturbances often weaken or change course after encountering the surrounding mountain ranges, a factor current models struggle to capture.
With climate variability further complicating weather behaviour, specialists stress the need for high-resolution, Kashmir-specific models and stronger observation networks. As winters become increasingly uncertain, the growing gap between prediction and reality is emerging as a serious challenge for both livelihoods and long-term planning in the Valley.
