Budgam Bypoll 2025: A Clear Signal of Change in Kashmir’s Politics
Wani Arfat
The Budgam Bypoll of 2025 is one of the most defining and thought-provoking political moments in recent years in Jammu and Kashmir, not because it changed the result of a single seat but also brought out the mood, emotions, frustrations, and silent expectations of an entire society that has long remained shaped by legacy parties, familiar faces, and traditional loyalties.
The election, which was held on 11 November 2025 amidst freezing temperatures, quiet roads, and a valley wrapped in early winter, witnessed a turnout of 50.01 percent, which might seem modest but in reality stands for a resolute electorate that stepped out despite cold winds and frost to make sure their voice is counted.
When the results were announced on 14 November, the ground shook gently yet decisively as Aga Syed Muntazir Mehdi of Peoples Democratic Party secured 21,576 votes and defeated National Conference candidate Aga Syed Mahmood Al Mosavi, who received 17,098 votes with a margin of 4,478 votes.
This victory is historic because Budgam has always been seen as a fortress of the National Conference, and to break such a fortress, what is required is not campaign speeches but a shift in public conscience.
This by-election became necessary after Chief Minister Omar Abdullah won both Budgam and Ganderbal seats in the 2024 Assembly elections and later decided to retain Ganderbal. This decision opened Budgam for a contest that soon transformed into a battlefield of ideas, loyalties, personal reputations, new experiments, and old expectations.
Nineteen candidates entered the fray, including seven independents, which itself tells the story of political fragmentation and growing restlessness among the people. The presence of youth activists, civil society members, religious scholars, community workers, and new faces indicated that Budgam is no longer satisfied with a two-party frame but wants to see who really understands their needs, who can listen, who promises change with sincerity, and who can carry the courage to speak for everyday issues that matter.
The most surprising yet powerful element of this contest, however, was independent candidate Jibran Dar, who attained 7,152 votes. His campaign centered on unemployment, digital literacy, youth participation, community development, and clean political conduct.
His appeal for many youngsters lay in the fact that he embodied their anxieties and aspirations. Other independents infused novelty into this election with low-budget but high-energy campaigns using social media, local gatherings, home visits, and public conversations where voters spoke openly and candidly. This cumulative independent surge hit at the very calculations of big parties because it indicated a new political reality whereby independents cannot be taken lightly or overlooked.
Apart from independents, the by-election also saw the participation of national and regional parties. The BJP’s Aga Syed Mohsin secured 2,619 votes, keeping the BJP’s presence in central Kashmir quiet but persistent. Nazir Ahmad Khan of the Awami Ittehad Party and Deeba Khan of the Aam Aadmi Party expanded the political horizon; their participation brought alternative discourses on governance and accountability into the public space.
All these candidates together turned Budgam into a remarkable political microcosm where multiple narratives coexisted and competed, showing that Kashmir’s political culture is evolving beyond traditional dominance.
Apart from this, most of the relevant details about this election were not mentioned in the earlier narrative. Demographic background about the voters was lacking in the topic, whereas young voters came out in higher numbers in urban areas, and women participated actively in large numbers in rural pockets.
The election also witnessed tight security arrangements, including the deployment of CRPF, monitoring by drones, and special teams to ensure free and fair polling. There were no major complaints or technical issues, and the overall process ran smoothly.
Statistically, the estimated vote share broadly divided between PDP at around 36 to 38 percent, NC at 28 to 30 percent, independents around 12 to 14 percent, BJP around 4 to 5 percent, and smaller parties shared the rest. Budgam has traditionally been an NC bastion with victories in earlier elections, including formidable performances in 2014 and 2019, and also Omar Abdullah’s victory in 2024. The PDP victory in 2025 thus becomes nothing less than a political reversal.
Another important dimension this election entailed is the internal dynamics of the NC, in view of reports that senior NC leader Aga Ruhullah did not participate in the campaign actively.
This silence only led to questions and allowed analysts to interpret defeat both as a reflection of discontent with governance and with discomfort inside the party. The people are believed to have expressed irritation with the style of governance, unfulfilled promises, and disconnect with grassroots realities by the NC.
The PDP, on its part, approached the campaign with a calm but determined strategy focused on door-to-door outreach, community interactions, and an emphasis on development and accountability rather than emotional slogans. This bypoll also did not have the details of candidate profiles beforehand required to understand the human dimension of the result.
Aga Syed Muntazir Mehdi is known for his engagement with the community, cool temper, religious scholarship, and the ability to strike a chord with ordinary people on routine matters. His victory is thus not only political but moral too, since he showed it could be done through sincerity and not slogans.
Aga Syed Mahmood Al Mosavi is respected for his scholarship and religious leadership; however, he had to overcome public disappointment linked with the governance of his party. Jibran Dar is representative of this new kind of Kashmiri political persona which is defined by education, digital awareness, and youth-to-youth communication.
The issues that shaped this election were real and acutely felt: roads in Budgam need repair and expansion, hospitals need more facilities, schools need modernization, the youth want jobs and recognition, and the citizens want their representatives to stay in touch with them, not only during elections but throughout the year. These issues got a louder expression through the independent candidates who, much more forthrightly and boldly, communicated with the public.
The result of this election carries long-term implications: for PDP, it brings a moral boost and the responsibility to deliver; for NC, it brings an urgent reminder to reorganize, reconnect, and rebuild trust; for independents, it signals that the door is open for future political breakthroughs if sincerity and hard work continue.
And for the political map of Jammu and Kashmir, the Budgam bypoll sends a message to say that the voters are awake, watchful, and willing to shift allegiance if they feel ignored. Quietly but steadily, politics in Kashmir is changing, and this bypoll stands as proof that the old structures are no longer unbreakable.
Finally, Budgam Bypoll-2025 is not merely an electoral verdict but a reflection of an evolving political consciousness, shifting loyalties, rising expectations, and growing demand for honest representation. It tells every political actor that Budgam and Kashmir as a whole are not passive observers in their political destiny anymore but active participants in molding it afresh with maturity, courage, and clarity.
(The author is a passionate writer, social activist)
