Will the BJP make it the third time?
By: Priyanka Saurabh
Exit polls have projected a significant lead in the South with the BJP (NDA) returning for the third time in 2024. This trend is important because the BJP has made significant efforts in the last 10 years to make inroads in the southern states, especially Kerala and Tamil Nadu.
The BJP is expected to perform better than the 2019 number of 303 seats and together with allies, it can also come close to realizing its slogan of “Ab ki baar, 400 cross”. When PM Modi climbed more than 100 stairs to pay tribute to Tiruvalluvar in Kanyakumari itself, it was proved that this PM will not stop.
Indeed, this is a political Agnipath in which PM Modi has made Purnahuti deliver the full benefits of development projects to the last person standing in the queue. This election will be considered different in the history of democracy because, after ten years of rule, PM Modi has once again asked for votes for his work. Anti-incumbency seemed to have been sidelined when voters across the country were seen chanting Modi Modi.
After the conclusion of the Lok Sabha election campaign, BJP has started assessing its performance. Based on the feedback received from across the country, the BJP is hopeful that the Modi government is going to be formed once again.
According to BJP sources, the party expects better performance in some states than in 2019. The counting of votes for the Lok Sabha elections will take place on June 4. Election exit polls have started coming. People have different opinions about exit polls at different places. This time, the figure of 400 plus will not be achieved. Yes, the BJP will certainly form the government again. People believe that BJP will get around 370 seats.
Today we will finally know how close the BJP or NDA can reach its declared “400 plus” seat target. In India’s electoral history, a party has only once surpassed that number, when the Congress won 414 seats (out of 541 seats that went to polls) in the Lok Sabha elections that were held after Indira Gandhi’s assassination.
However, it will be a few days from now that we will know how close the NDA comes to its declared target of “crossing 400”. In India’s electoral history, a party has only once surpassed that number, when the Congress won 414 seats in the Lok Sabha elections that were held after Indira Gandhi’s assassination.
The Congress won 414 out of 541 seats that went to polls. Rajiv Gandhi became Prime Minister. Rajiv Gandhi, who was hastily selected as interim Prime Minister after his mother’s assassination, formed the government in 1984. However, that massive majority did not mean that his government was free from trouble. It was beset by problems ranging from the Shah Bano verdict to the opening of the locks of the Babri Masjid temple to the Bofors scandal.
BJP started the election campaign with ‘Modi Ki Guaranty’. ‘Modi Ki Guaranty’ was also mentioned prominently in the party’s manifesto. Many BJP leaders kept talking about NDA crossing 400. Issues related to social security and poor welfare were mentioned in detail in the rallies. BJP’s confidence reached its peak with the inauguration of Ram temple in January.
BJP made the opposition’s boycott of the Praan Pratishtha program in Ram temple an issue. Later, leaders from many other parties left their parties and joined the BJP by making this an issue. This helped BJP to bring the Ram temple issue to the center stage across the country. For many months, the leaders of the India group have been running a campaign that the South gets a very small amount compared to its contribution to the national treasury.
States like Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, and Kerala have also alleged discrimination in the allocation of funds. If the BJP gets enough votes and seats in the South, it will deflate this argument and send a message that people are not accepting such arguments. Previous elections have shown that votes in the South are different from the Hindi belt. 2024 is in many ways a test of that theory and if these numbers are correct, then this election will indeed prove to be a seismic crossover.
If the exit poll numbers turn out to be accurate on June 4, it will mean that South India is no longer a no-go area for the BJP, which has long been derided as a Hindi-Hindu-Hindutva party. So far, the BJP has managed to rule only in Karnataka, which is considered as the gateway to the South.
The numbers suggest that the party could take two additional routes in the 2024 Lok Sabha election results. One is to go through Telangana and the other is to ride a pillion on the Telugu Desam bicycle in neighboring Andhra Pradesh. Apart from this, the results in Tamil Nadu and Kerala may also surprise us.
As soon as the Lok Sabha elections were announced PM Modi’s campaign gained such momentum that the opposition was left watching. PM Modi’s plan to reach every corner of the country also became successful. The situation was such that when the election campaign ended in 2024, it became clear that this time PM Modi had set a record of campaigning.
According to the data, PM Modi conducted 206 rallies, events, and road shows. During the entire election campaign, PM Modi also gave more than 80 interviews. While refreshing our memories, let us also tell you that in the two months before the announcement of the elections, PM Modi visited all the 30 states of the country three times and dedicated the development schemes to the nation.
(The author is a Research Scholar in Political Science)
