Nepal: The road seems bumpy
By: Kanchan Basu
The General Election in Nepal that were held in November 2022, passed off peacefully but prospects for stable government remain elusive. Neither of two electoral coalitions has managed to secure a clear majority. Maoist leader Pushpa Kamal Dahal ‘Prachanda’ who had broken up with the United Marxist – Leninist (UML) in 2020 and joined the Nepali Congress (NC)-led coalition, once again switched to the UML. On Christmas day, he was appointed Prime Minister for the Third time. To demonstrate his majority within 30 days, Prachanda will have to satisfy the demands of the UML and Six other Political Parties with widely diverging agendas.
With 89 seats in a House of 275, the NC emerged as the largest party. It had an opportunity to form both the federal and six of the seven provincial governments with its coalition partners but missed the bus, thanks to the NC leader Sher Bahadur Deuba’s ego (he is 76 and after five stints, remains convinced of his destiny to be Prime Minister Six times) and poor advice. Yet, 30 days is a long time in Nepal’s politics and Prachanda may again realise too late that had been manipulated by UML leader K. P. Oli.
Nepal has seen 32 Governments in as many years of democratic exercise since 1990 – and 10 Governments in the 14 years since the monarchy was abolished in 2008. The country’s leaders had then made collective promises of a “stable government, consolidation of democracy, economic prosperity, and corruption free governance”. They stand thoroughly discredited – and not many people except this general election to bring lasting political stability.
Strange bedfellows
Prachanda led the insurgency against the state for a decade between 1996 and 2006, and clashed with Deuba who, as Prime Minister for several of those years, offered cash rewards for “Maoists’ heads”. The large number of the 17,000 individuals killed during the civil war belonged to Deuba’s Nepali Congress. Deuba himself survived an ambush by the Maoists.
The two men are now allies. The Maoists have been able to stall the transitional justice – an essential promise of the peace agreement signed in November 2006 – and their investigation for ‘Human Rights’ abuses. As the Maoists have lost strength in Parliament and Politics. Prachanda’s decision to shift from his old constituency is seen to indicate his party’s depleting support.
In the last elections, 50 persent of votes went to the Communist Parties, but the United Socialists and Maoists that were then part of the Oli-led dispensation have now switched sides.
A messy transition
Nepal’s transition from a monarchy to a republic began in 2008. In 15 years, Nepal has had three Nepali Congress (NC) Prime Ministers (G. P. Koirala, Sushil Koirala and Mr. Deuba twice), two Maoist Prime Ministers (Prachanda twice and Baburam Bhattarai), three United Marxist – Leninist (UML) Prime Ministers (Madhav Nepal, Jhala Nath Khanal and Mr. Oli twice), and a Chief Justice as caretaker Prime Minister in 2013. In such a fluid environment, political horse trading has been rampant.
Following the adoption of the new Constitution in 2015, elections were held in 2017. Then too, Prachanda was in a coalition government with the NC, but a month before the elections, switched to from an electoral alliance with the UML. He soon realised that he was relegated to being the junior partner with 53 seats compared to the UML’s 121. Mr. Oli assumed the post of Prime Minister in 2018 and despite promising Prachanda, never ceded control of the merged Nepal Communist Party.
Mr. Oli’s authoritarian traits soon antagonised some of his senior colleagues, Madhav Nepal, Jhala Nath Khanal and Bhim Rawal, who made common cause with Prachanda. However, Mr. Oli had a clear run till early 2020 because under the Constitution, a no-confidence-motion cannot be entertained for the first two years. By the summer of 2020, intra-perty rumblings came to the fore, creating a showdown by the end of the year. Fortunately for Prachanda, a Supreme Court judgement in early 2021, annulled the merger of Maoists with the UML, enabling Prachanda to claim his party back.
As Mr. Oli realised that he was losing his majority, he tried to retrieve the situation by recommending dissolution of the House. President Bidya Devi Bhandari has been Mr. Oli’s close comrade since she entered active politics after the untimely demise of her husband Madan Bhandari, a charismatic UML leader, in a car accident in 1993. Mr. Oli had taken on the role of her political mentor and in 2018, backed her elevation to the presidency.
She reciprocated the favour by ignoring constitutional propriety and approving dubious ordinances that were repeatedly struck down by the Supreme Court.
The Maoists under Prachanda and the dissident group of the UML led by Madhav Nepal eventually jumped ship and backed the NC Sher Bahadur Deuba’s appointment as Prime Minister in July 2021. The three coalition partners had fought the elections as an alliance but Mr. Oli succeeded in splitting the alliance by weaning away Prachanda, who by his own admission, admits to being easily tempted.
Issues and promises
There is palpable public anger – a powerful “No, Not Again” campaign on social media has held all top leaders of the major parties equally responsible for the prevailing mess and corruption in the executive and judiciary, and the alleged loss of respect for the Nepali passport overseas.
The Election Commission was forced to retract its demand that the social media campaign be stopped, following criticism that it had been silent on the alleged involvement of the three top leaders in major scandals and financial irregularities.
The Nepali Congress has promised to lower the age for social security to 65 from 70. Amid criticism that Deuba’s government has taken a pro-US stance in the Russia-Ukrain conflict, the Prime Minister has said Nepal would remain non-aligned in the context of global security, and will maintain a balanced relationship with its immediate neighbours.
Prachanda endorses Oli’s ‘Foreign Policy’ stance. The Maoists want to change the current ‘mixed’ electoral system to 100 percent proportional representation, and a directly elected Executive President.
Oli, who has a penchant for making non-serious promises of development, has reiterated that he would build a Tibet-Nepal railway.
Election results of 2022
The 2008 elections saw the emergence of two new political actors, Maoists who had come overground after waging a decade-long insurgency and Madhesis who spearheaded the call for federalism. Over the years, they have lost their ideological moorings and have aligned with whichever group forms the government. From being the single largest party in 2008 with nearly 40% seats in the first Constituent Assembly, the Maoists are today reduced to 11%; the Madhesis have come down from 15% to 10%.
The 2022 elections have seen new political actors emerge. The Rashtriya Swatantra Party (RSP), a creation of Rabi Lamicchhane, a popular TV talk show host, became the platform for the millennial Nepalis, especially the diaspora. They were disenchanted with the self-serving leaders of the NC, the UML and the Maoist parties. However, the RSP MPs are a diverse group who campaigned on their individual platforms and with their own resources.
Similar disenchantment with the Madhesi parties led to the emergence of the Janamat Party, led by C. K. Raut, a former supporter of Madhesi secessionism, and the Nagarik Unmukti Party set up by a Tharu leader Resham Chaudhary who is behind bars, but his wife Ranjeeta Shrestha campaigned successfully in his name. The RSP, Janmat and NUP managed to win 20, 6 and 3 seats, respectively.
This fragmentation of votes has led to a lot of ‘floaters’ who can switch allegiances, just as Prachanda has done. Upendra Yadav (Janata Samajbadi Party) was in talks with the NC when it appeared that it would from the government but shifted back to the UML-Maoist group. The pro-monarchy pro-Hindutva Rastriya Prajatantra Party supporting the secular Communist alliance reflects the opportunism in Nepali politics.
Prachanda may think that he has a secure two-year term but with barely 32 seats (the UML has 78), it is clear that Mr. Oli will call the shots. He will ensure his own candidate as the President once Ms. Bhandari’s term ends in March 2023. In the provinces, Maoists will be lucky to get one chief ministership.
Kathmandu and New Delhi
India, which used to play a decisive role in Nepal’s internal politics until 2005, lost its clout after it collaborated with the Maoists whom it had declared to be terrorists, thus presenting the Nepali Congress with a fait accompli : and played a role in the exit of the monarchy, the institution that it had worked with.
New Delhi does not have a trusted institutional ally in Nepal at the moment. As of now, it is watching the developments as they unfold.
Oli has promised to bring Kalapani, Lipulekh, and Limpiadhura in Uttarakhand under Nepal’s control, if he wins. A new tenure for Oli may not be different from his two earlier tenures – which saw a deterioration of relations between India and Nepal. In 2015, the promulgation of the constitution resulted in an economic blockade by India and, in 2018, the territorial dispute broke out.
Since 2006, China has worked towards becoming a major player in Nepal – increasing its investments in multiple sectors, and then seeking a favourable regime in Kathmandu. As tensions rose with India. Oli’s government signed a trade and transit treaty with China in 2016. President Xi Jinping visited Nepal in October 2019, and in September 2022, ahead of the National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party. National Assembly chief Li Zhanshu held talks with Nepal’ leaders, including Oli and Prachanda.
India’s role
It is at times of political instability that Nepali politicians start looking for the convenient scapegoat of ‘Foreign Interference’. India was conspicuously missing during the election campaign and Prime Minister Narendra Modi was the first to congratulate Mr. Prachanda on his appointment. After 2018, China had played a major role in bringing about a UML-MAOIST alliance but failed to keep it intact. Senior Maoist leader Barshaman Pun was in China for medical treatment recently and reportedly played a role in the new UML-MAOIST rapprochement.
In recent years, India has retrieved lost ground in Nepal by focusing on project implementation. Since 2022, the Jaynagar-Bardibas Railway started with India providing technical support. In 2019, the long-awaited Motihari-Amlekhgunj oil pipeline was inaugurated. Power generation in Nepal has picked up. The generation in Nepal has picked up. The agreement to export 364 MW signed in June has yielded export earnings of $60 million in 2022. According to the Nepal Electricity Authority, the figure could quadruple in 2023 with the 900 MW ‘Arun 3′ becoming operational.
Yet, there are some issues that need to be resolved. Foremost is the demonetised Indian currency issue, pending since 2016. Talks between the two Central Banks need a political nudge. The second is the recruitment for the Gurkha Regiments, held up since the launch of the Agnipath scheme. As Narendra Modi declared during his last visit, the relationship needs “Equality, Mutual Trust, Respect and Benifit” to sustain it, irrespective of who resides in Baluwatar.
(The author is a columnist and Member of Indian Journalists’ Association).
