Don’t let things out of hand
AS Taliban is surging ahead and making fast advances, Pakistan expects some five lakh fresh Afghan refugees in case a civil war breaks out. However, this time the Pakistani authorities insist refugees would be kept at special camps in the bordering areas instead of letting them in the settled parts of the country.
Afghan refugees started coming to Pakistan following the invasion by the former Soviet Union.Pakistan has been pushing to send them back but it may face fresh waves of refugees if Afghanistan plunged into civil war.
At a recent briefing given to a select group of parliamentarians, the military authorities in Pakistan painted grim prospects of any peace in Afghanistan.
The members of parliament were told that Afghanistan was fast descending into civil war, something that did not bode well for Pakistan. The negative fallout of unrest in Afghanistan includes a rise in terrorism and a fresh influx of Afghan refugees.
Importantly, in recent weeks, the insurgents have seized nearly a third of Afghanistan’s rural districts and besieged several provincial capitals.
Hundreds of Afghan security force members have fled into neighbouring Tajikistan in the face of Taliban advances since the US vacated its main Afghan base as part of a plan to withdraw all foreign troops by September 11.
Therefore, it is too early to predict where things are heading in Afghanistan. The situation at best is volatile and unpredictable and it needs sustained efforts to initiate peaceful power transaction in the restive region.
Though earlier peace talks have ended in a deadlock several measures by all the stakeholders need to be ensured to help restore sanity in the region.
The priority for the Afghan government, Washington and NATO should be a serious reduction in violence leading to a cease fire. The Taliban have said it is negotiable, but until now have resisted any immediate cease fire.
For peace talks to begin and progress there has to be an environment of peace. Not because it is a prerogative but a peaceful environment will help develop mutual trust and understanding.
What can prove critical to initiate a meaningful dialogue between the Taliban and the government in Afghanistan is Pakistan. Pakistan is seen as critical to getting the Taliban back to the table but also to press the insurgent movement whose leadership is headquartered in Pakistan to help reduce violence in Afghanistan.
It is important to note that any peace deal in Afghanistan will act as a building stone for other issues that confront important and powerful nations in the south Asian region.