Six months of worries
It is almost six months now since the first lockdown to curtail the spread of Covid19 was announced. The deadly pandemic has since then left an indelible mark on our minds in many ways now. Not only did it have a huge impact on our health and social behavior and patterns, the virus has also crippled economies all over the world.
Across the globe people have complaining of job losses since the virus made its presence felt. The impact of the virus has been so huge that the International Labour Organisation (ILO) has warned that if another COVID-19 wave hits in the second half of 2020, there would be global working-hour loss of 11.9 per cent – equivalent to the loss of 340 million full-time jobs.
According to the 5th edition of ILO Monitor- COVID-19 and the world of work, the recovery in the global labour market for the rest of the year will be uncertain and incomplete.
The report said that there was a 14 per cent drop in global working hours during the second quarter of 2020, equivalent to the loss of 400 million full-time jobs. The number of working hours lost across the world in the first half of 2020 was significantly worse than previously estimated. The highly uncertain recovery in the second half of the year will not be enough to go back to pre-pandemic levels even in the best scenario, the agency warned.
The baseline model which assumes a rebound in economic activity in line with existing forecasts, the lifting of workplace restrictions and a recovery in consumption and investment projects a decrease in working hours of 4.9 per cent (equivalent to 140 million full-time jobs) compared to last quarter of 2019.
The loss of jobs will certainly have an everlasting impact on weaker economies around the world. The developing countries like India will witness a much greater impact as the region has already witnessed migration of workers on a huge scale due to the Covid-19 pandemic and the subsequent lockdowns announced by the government.
Even the RBI just yesterday said that the impact on the economy cannot be calculated as of now as the demand in the market is still subdued.
Rough estimates suggest that about 100-120 million Indians lost their jobs due to the nationwide lockdown during the first two months (April-May) alone. India’s unemployment rate rose to 28 percent during the month of May.
The problems facing the Indian economy as it opens up have not come under control. Issues with supply-chain infrastructure, problems with liquidity for companies, a decline in consumption demand and a fear among the labour of getting infected and isolated has made things worse.
Things have been no different in a place like Kashmir. With the government here failing to provide the much needed stimulus to the economy, things seem to head for a disaster.
Our key sectors, tourism and horticulture have taken a severe hit and the markets have witnessed an unusual slump. Things can go seriously wrong if such a situation continues for long. Kashmir is a closed economy and some measures need to be taken immediately to improve the market sentiment. We need quick decisions this time.
