Tough stance can help
One of the major political developments viewed with great interest during the past few weeks was the Pakistan-Saudi relations. The two nations which form an important link in the Muslim block have been at logger heads to the extent that Pakistan has been quite unmindful of the repercussion it can have to bear in case it falls out with the powerful Saudi Arabia.
Immediately two major fallouts can come up in-case the relations turns bitter. Firstly, a $6 billion Saudi credit line—approximately $3 billion provided to shore up Islamabad’s foreign currency reserves and another $3 billion in deferred oil payments can make things quite difficult for Pakistan.
Pakistan as for now is banking quite heavily on China. The signal here being that as Saudi Arabia diversifies relations, Pakistan, too is re-evaluating Riyadh’s strategic worth. Notwithstanding Pakistan’s earlier knee-jerk reaction of December 2019 when Prime Minister Imran Khan declined to attend a summit in Malaysia due to Saudi pressure, Islamabad has now re-assessed its own position.
Though on the face of it, it seems that both the countries cannot afford to remain aloof from one another. Both Islamabad and Riyadh are heavily invested in each other. Pakistan’s armed forces play a critical role in securing the Saudi royalty and training of their armed forces. This is a role that was consciously sought and built upon since the mid-1960s.
Traditionally, the Saudi royalty has preferred Pakistan’s military over the Egyptians or other Arab states. According to an assessment, there may be about 3,000-5,000 Pakistani troops presently deployed in the Kingdom. Besides, two former powerful Pak army Generals, General Raheel Sharif and Maj. General Khawar Hanif work closely with the Saudi defence establishment.
On its part, Saudi Arabia has consistently invested in Pakistan’s State and society. The bilateral State relations may not be at their best, but that does not minimise Saudi influence on Pakistan’s society.
Pakistan can prove to be a crucial link for emergence of a new Muslim block that can threaten the Saudi hegemony among the Muslim nations. Saudi establishments have been important for Pakistan as a source of socio-political legitimacy and as a financier. It is also one of the sources of oil procurement at affordable rates and terms. But that in itself is not sufficient to tie Pakistan to Saudi Arabia forever and at all costs.
Perhaps the Pakistani establishment has sensed the change as politically the present Saudi regime has numerous challenges to its security and lacks power to lead the Muslim world. The Saudi Crown Prince may look powerful but he has his vulnerabilities that could be exploited.
The rivalry that the present dispensation has generated locally can change the power equation and the Saudi deep state is also not favouring the rulers right now.
Pakistan seems to be driven more by the confidence of being part of a strategic grouping that it believes will dominate global politics in the coming years. The relationship with China, a possible inclusion of Iran and growth of the Belt and CPEC Road project do offer new challenges, but also holds promises for Pakistan and its emerging allies.
This simply put means that Saudi Arabia will have to brace up for facing a tougher opponent in Pakistan than it may have perceived.
KV Network
