Pulwama attack and the emerging political scene in Kashmir
Nasir Ahmad Dar
This year is a very important year in the context of Indian Politics. It is a year of elections. On one hand we have general elections lining up in a few months on the other hand we will be seeing assembly elections to be held in six other states.
These elections, especially the general elections, will play a pivotal role in shaping the path of the Indian democracy. All of these elections are going to be intriguingly close and might see some firsts and some lasts in the history of the Republic of India just like the “Mahagathbandhan” which is first of its kind.
The fever of these elections has been up now for many months. The elections took an interesting mode when after BJP lost three major states to INC and could not form the government in two other states. The election campaigning was already up even before the attack on security forced on 14th February 2019 in which an estimated 44 soldiers lost their lives while many were left injured.
However, this attack has taken the election scenario by storm and now the calculations about the possible winners and runner up has changed drastically. This happened because we all know political parties would try their best to gain maximum votes in the aftermath of one of the worst attack ever on the CRPF.
This attack which was carried by a young local boy has seen a sharp rise in the nationalistic emotions in the country and the consequences are still unfolding. The Narendra Modi led government which is under pressure after the attack has upped the ante against Pakistan even while hardening its stand on Kashmir, Kashmiri separatist leaders and even ordinary Kashmiri citizens.
The last week has seen Jammu, mostly parts of north India and some southern states erupt in violence against Kashmiri students. These events have now created a doubt over the possibility of conducting elections for Jammu and Kashmir Assembly which were scheduled to be held parallel to the general elections in the month of April this year.
This suicide attack has been estimated as the worst ever on the security forces in Jammu and Kashmir in decades and it is certainly going to have its impact on the upcoming general and assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir. Moreover, the break-up of a seemingly elusive alliance between PDP-BJP will also play a pivotal role going into these elections.
This break-up saw some evident changes in various political faces and parties in the state. The PDP has been on the receiving end as it saw a massive shakeup which is threatening even its existence in the state as of now. The BJP has had a rough ride in 2018, it lost elections in 6 states and lost the government in Jammu and Kashmir thus adding to its misery.
The worst part for BJP now is that Rahul Gandhi who is considered to be a man of straw has now grown immensely both on national as well as international level thus providing a slight hope for the people who have been looking for an alternative after the disastrous display by BJP at center and the states which it runs.
However, this attack has now changed the political scenario of India drastically and now the political fever has started to sway in its way. Since the attack happened in Pulwama there has been a stiff rise in the assaults towards Kashmiri people residing in other parts of the nation. There have been incidents of verbal assaults while as at some places reports have suggested that Kashmiris have been subject to physical violence as well. Some of them have been expelled from their colleges while as some have been asked to vacate their homes and close their businesses.
This piece analyses the up-coming assembly elections in J & K keeping in mind the twin factors of the Pulwama attack and the termination of the alliance between the BJP and the PDP. How will Pulwama and its violent aftermath change the electoral dynamics within the State? What changes can be anticipated in the rhetoric of the different parties? Who has benefitted from the break-up of the BJP-PDP alliance and how?
The suicide attack in Pulwama
The suicide attack happened in the afternoon of 14th of February and Jaish-e-Muhammad took the responsibility of this attack. It was carried out by Adil Ahmad Dar, a local aged 22 years. This attack has now increased the emotional quotient in India against Pakistan, leading to an outcry of war and aggression against Pakistan. Moreover, some people have asked for attacks on Kashmiri people living in the state or in any other part of the nation. Jaish is a Pakistan based insurgent group which was banned General Musharraf following the September 11 attacks in US. However, even after the ban this outfit has continued recruiting youth for carrying out attacks in Kashmir. On 14th February Adil Dar struck his Scorpio, laden with estimated 350 KG explosives, against one of the buses in the convoy carrying CRPF soldiers in Pulwama. This attack left 44 soldiers dead and many families shattered.
The aftermath of the attacks
The TV news hosts have already started to demand the war against Pakistan. The news channels are flooded with war veterans and they have formed guidelines to destroy Pakistan and inflict maximum damage. In 2016, the government had ordered surgical strikes on the terror launch pads across the border. These attacks were lauded so much that Bollywood produced a movie named Uri in the honor of Indian Army and also the apparent strategic planning which made this attack a success. However, the army general who led these surgical strikes has claimed that these strikes were overhyped for mere political gains.
Even today air strikes are being claimed by the Indian establishment and JeM headquarters have been reportedly targeted. Though Pakistan admitted the strike but claimed no loss of life or damage.
The present situation in India worst in many years because firstly the number of personnel killed is higher than 2016 and secondly people across different states of India have targeted the civilians of Kashmir and at some places they have been forced to go back home.
Jammu in particular has seen some serious implications of the suicide attack of Pulwama. Hundreds of Kashmiri Muslim families have been attacked, their properties burnt and there have been raging voices asking for the expulsion of Kashmiris from Jammu city. The situation in Jammu is so grave that government had to implement curfew in the city to avoid further attacks on Kashmiri families.
It is obvious that such a level of polarization can never be spontaneous and it surely is an organized phenomenon. It must be remembered that just a few days before the Pulwama attacks many Kashmiri families, students and traders were physically assaulted in Jammu and some of them were hurled stoned. The students of Jammu held protests against alleged pro-Pakistani sloganeering by Kashmiri stranded passengers who had to stay in Jammu due to inclement weather in the valley. It makes no sense that passengers who strive for food would raise pro-Pakistani slogans in a Hindu majority city knowing and it hasn’t even been established yet.
The State chief of the BJP, Ravinder Raina, offered full support to the agitating students and was quoted as saying that “The NC, the PDP and the Congress have sympathy for anti-national forces. They have a soft corner for killers. Omar Abdullah and Mehbooba Mufti are fed by India but their hearts throb for others”. It is evident by his speech that BJP had already tried to trigger anti-Kashmir lexicon in the Jammu region and now when the attack happened in Pulwama this plan caught more fire. Jammu city is under curfew and the employs from Kashmir region who work in Jammu fear for their lives and they are now demanding an airlift for them and their families back to Kashmir.
The attacks on Kashmiri students in different parts of the country have once again allowed PDP and NC with an opportunity to speak in support of the people of Kashmir. This may help them to raise sympathy votes in Kashmir in the same way BJP may try to polarize Jammu people to help them gain more votes in the upcoming elections both at center as well as the state. PDP is in its worst form and by speaking for the people they may be able to increase their chances in the election, however their chances look bleak at the moment.
The legacy of the BJP-PDP coalition
The Jammu and Kashmir is now under the governor rule after the break-up of BJP and PDP. The PDP-BJP alliance was historic in a way that it saw two entirely different set of parties come together to rule the state. The negotiations were more of a compromise than a coalition. The agenda of alliance was conceptualized by Ram Madhav of BJP and Haseeb Drabu of PDP and this was the basic cell in the construction of a great alliance.
However, this agenda of alliance did not work and the alliance broke down leaving PDP in shambles and BJP in driver’s seat. The situation of PDP as of now is that its very existence is in threat and many of its prominent leaders have either left the party or been expelled from the party. They key members like Basharat Bukhari and Altaf Bukhari who were members of the cabinet and held important ministerial posts were expelled from the party for carrying out anti-party activities. The shia leaders like Imran Ansari and Abid Ansari have resigned from the party citing it’s complete failure as the reason. PDP also sidelined one of the most important leaders Haseeb Drabu and he resigned eventually. BJP also suffered post break-up as it lost an eminent leader in Choudhary Lal Singh and Thupstan Chhewang from Jammu and Ladakh respectively. The BJP has a huge task ahead however the attack in Pulwama may have made its ride a little smoother as it was just a week ago.
It is a fact that seeking votes on the name of self-rule and autonomy are not going to win any votes for either PDP or NC. They have made tall promises in the past regarding safeguarding of the special status and providing justice for the victims of human rights violations. The abolition of laws like Armed Power Special Powers Act (AFSPA) and Public Safety Act (PSA) is also not going to fetch any votes as they have earlier met with no success while being in power. This holds true for both these parties because both of them have served in power alternatively for a decade and a half now. However they may call for settlement of issues between India and Pakistan which can build some strength in their claim to power in the valley.
BJP, on the other hand, is a party whose entire political motive is backed by the claim of Kashmir being an integral part of Indian Union. Their entire political campaign is mostly based on the abrogation of Article 370 and 35A scrapping the special status that the state of Jammu and Kashmir enjoys as of now. BJP has always sought a Uniform civil code for the entire nation with one rule, one ruler and one nation usually known as the slogan; Ek Nishan, Ek Vidhan aur Ek Pradhan (one constitution, one flag, and one sovereign head). The BJP also seeks more aggression against stone-pelters and militants in Kashmir valley. They are of the opinion that Kashmir is a sovereign matter of India and Pakistan is no stakeholder in this regard.
The alliance of PDP and BJP was tipped more as a “governance alliance” and this alliance sought reconciliation on the state. They decided to start dialogue with Pakistan on Kashmir issue. They decided not to indulge in any alteration of the existing constitutional provisions about the state including Article 370.
Once the government started to function, many unseen aspects started to unfold in our eyes. People earlier believed that PDP had an upper hand in the governance of the state as BJP had made some huge compromises just to remain in power. But things changed drastically and BJP once again started to walk the same path as it has walked earlier on. They decided to ditch any advice from the PDP regarding settlements with Pakistan. Narendra Modi while addressing in Srinagar refused any settlement with Pakistan blatantly. This speech made it evident that BJP, apparently, decided to be the ally of PDP only to rise to the power in the state and nothing else. It is not a hidden fact that BJP has always sought changes in the constitutional provisions about Kashmir. A petition was filed in the Supreme Court for challenging the validity and legality of the Article 35A. This petition was actively supported by BJP and even now BJP seeks urgent hearing on the issue, although SC has been deferring the hearing until now but finally it will be heard any time in the month of February. BJP managed to prove that Mehbooba Mufti was a weak Chief Minister and she was corrupt.
The BJP decided to pull out of the alliance on June 19, 2018 based on the claims of their members being unable to carry out the developmental processes in Jammu and Ladakh. Moreover they mentioned the reason of terrorism for the break-up. Ram Madhav, the general secretary of BJP, even went on to claim that terrorism, radicalization and violence were on a rise and posed threat to the Fundamental rights of the citizens. This, however, was vehemently in contrast with the tall claims that BJP had been boasting in the national capital and the media. They had been claiming that masterstrokes like Demonetization and Surgical Strikes had broken the back of the stone-pelters and militants as the funds to them were ceased by these steps. Surgical strikes, which were carried out by the Indian army on militant launch pads across the Line of Control (LoC), were said to have taught Pakistan a lesson, although the reality of these strikes continues to be shrouded in mystery.
The symbols of parties and their dresses should not be used for Political gains. However BJP claimed that the green color used by PDP represented Islam and they have been promoting Islam in the state, although, it is no hidden fact that the BJP tried to lure voters in Kashmir on the name of same religion.
The upcoming elections
BJP decided to give up the government on the name of halt on the developmental work in Jammu and Ladakh. However, their main target was always going to be upcoming Assembly Election. In 2014 BJP won a staggering 25 seats in Jammu and Kashmir which is their best performance in the state ever.
This has made them believe that they may be able to form the government on their own in the state. This time they are targeting a whooping 50 seats. The sweeping victories in Jammu Municipal Corporation elections and the local body polls in Kashmir region will definitely serve as a boost to them. The target of 50 seats may have looked like an exaggeration but the recent events will certainly make them wish for more but one thing that remains to be seen is the response of the Narendra Modi led government to the Pulwama attack because, let’s be honest, it is not the attack that would fetch Narendra Modi votes it is the response that will lure the otherwise lazy voters.
The way things are going in the state this may be said that the state will not see any votes going towards INC so their chances of forming the government look less than bleak. This doesn’t mean they can’t be optimistic at all. They have a huge opportunity in Jammu. BJP in Jammu lost their prominent leader Choudhary Lal Singh and his departure may see some votes sway into the bucket of INC and if they come up winners at center who knows they may even win more votes than we can calculate right now. This is the beauty of Indian politics we never know what is on the stake what is lurking in future.
The BJP party was accused of shielding the accused in the Kathua Rape case and this led to the BJP seeking resignation of the leader. He decided to quit and dedicated himself for the service of Jammu and run a campaign in support of the people of Jammu.
Lal Singh has not stopped since the resignation. He has been taking on BJP for failing the people of Jammu and hurting the pride of Dogras. The “Dogra Pride” is an effective election plank used by various members of all political parties which include Devendra Singh Rana of NC and Vikramaditya of Congress. But it is no hidden fact that Lal Singh is an out and out winner when it comes to gathering votes on the name of “Dogra Pride”. The empty chairs at Narendra Modi’s function in Jammu recently are an indication of Lal Singh’s popularity in a region where BJP lacks a leader with mass appeal. His role in deciding the fate of the BJP is going to be more crucial than Sajad Lone’s possible pre-poll alliance with them.
Lal Singh will play a pivotal role in the upcoming election in the Jammu region. This is a golden opportunity for Congress. If they can acquire his support it could be a huge boost for them both at center as well as state assembly election, thus, adding to the frustrations of BJP who suffering from his absence. Moreover we still can’t say anything about his position as the Pulwama attack may see some rapid changes in the scenario and who knows he may even decide to join hands with BJP again!
The INC has many problems coming to the elections in the state. The major problem is the lack of a mass mobiliser. This is because they lack a prominent leader in the state. Ghulam Nabi Azad may be one name but he is too busy handling the affairs in Delhi and he would be having other important affairs to handle during the spring election season. However Lal Singh’s departure may see reduction in the vote share of BJP and this where Congress can reap benefits and they must try to reap as much as possible because in the state of Jammu and Kashmir the margins of merit are very small and a handful of seats could see them up in front for the claim to governance. There is one more hope in the INC camp in the form of NC who would be more than willing to form the alliance with INC.
BJP is preparing the ground in Ladakh region and they have come very strong in the region recently. The people of Ladakh had alleged BJP for failing to establish a University in Ladakh and granting them a status of Union Territory. However BJP has recently decided to establish a University there and the governor Satya Pal Malik has given a divisional status to the region of Ladakh. These decisions will see many benefits reaped by BJP from the region. As of now BJP doesn’t seem to be worried about making ground in the valley directly however they may do it indirectly by forming a pre-poll alliance with the Sajad Lone of PC who is tipped as favorite of becoming the Chief Minister of the state this time.
Emergence of new players
BJP has never been a favorite in the valley and as of now it seems that the status quo will prevail. However, BJP did manage to win many seats in the local body election in Kashmir valley after the local Kashmiris decided to boycott the elections. The thing here is that PC is an emerging party in Kashmir and a pre-poll alliance of BJP-PC may make BJP optimistic.
As of now Sajad Lone has grown manifold and he wants to field his candidates in all of the 87 seats. However, a possibility of him coming together with BJP may see him remain within the valley only. Moreover he should not be too much optimistic in making the government with BJP as we all know how BJP treats local Kashmiri parties. For them all are same and all have same ideology. There were speculations earlier that PC might form the government and they even tried to claim the formation of government which led to some dramatic events later on. PDP, NC and INC decided to make a grand alliance to form the government in the state of Jammu and Kashmir, however, their claim came to end due to the failure of the fax machine of Governor Satya Pal Malik’s office. The NC and PDP leadership had some beautiful moments together but their romance came to an end once the assembly was dissolved. They once again resumed to the claims, accusations and allegations once again.
The PDP is struggling to survive. Some of its prominent members and former cabinet ministers have moved over to the PC and the NC. These are people with a strong hold in their constituencies and who have always won no matter which party they are part of. The Shia leaders like Imran Ansari and Abid Ansari, who left the PDP and joined the PC, are more than likely to be re-elected from their respective constituencies. Basharat Bukhari of the Sangrama constituency, who was a minister in the former cabinet, has joined the NC and is also likely to repeat his win unless Shoaib Lone of the INC upstages him.
The Baramulla district was completely under control of PDP in 2014 and as the things stand they won’t be able to win even a single seat from the district. PDP is on a verge of facing its worst run ever. They may not even touch two figure mark in the state after being in the government previously.
This time there are some other players also but their role cannot be considered pivotal as their contribution will be close to zero. Er. Rasheed may well benefit from his pro-Kashmir sloganeering and claims for the right to self determination. As the atmosphere in Kashmir is tense and filled with conflict he may turn out to be the dark horse. Former IAS officer Shah Faesal’s entry into the politics will not be of any great significance. He can create hype on social media only but the fact remains that it is very difficult to convert social media likes and shares into actual votes. People like him exist to keep the rhetoric of Delhi that Kashmir is an integral part of India and the people of Kashmir are actually participating in the poll campaigns. He is also serving the same rhetoric and purpose of Delhi and his participation will make Delhi’s claim stronger. There has been a huge demand for a youth icon of Kashmir who could drag Kashmiri young men to vote and make them participate in the formation of government. Shah Faesal is seen as a youth icon but the fact remains that he will be seen and heard more on social media and he will fail drastically in creating anything substantial in the form of any political party or a group of independent members. He will be used to shift the momentum from boycotts to votes in the valley. Sajad lone may form the government but he is also going to serve the same notion of the valley being actively part of the elections and activities under Indian administration thus countering the claims of separatist leaders about a Kashmir alienated from the rest of country.
Conclusion
The politics of Jammu and Kashmir is always a close call. There is always possibility of a coalition government. This time there seems to be no major changes in this regard. The BJP will be claiming Jammu region while as PDP and NC will try to focus on the Kashmir valley. Sajad Lone’s PC will try its best to steal as many seats as possible. He will be looking to form a pre-poll alliance and will surely be eyeing CM’s seat. His optimism is obvious due to the bleak chances of other local parties. However, NC will look to win as many seats as possible in the valley and will certainly be eyeing a coalition with INC who on the other hand will try their best to win as many seats as possible from Jammu and Ladakh where BJP will certainly lose vote share unless and until Choudhary Lal Singh joins hands again.
The game of elections is always interesting and in 2019 it is surely going to live up to the expectations but the elections in Jammu and Kashmir are surely the eye catchers and this time also people will be glued to see how the things turn out to be in the state.
(The writer is a member of Youth Parliament of Jammu and Kashmir his writings are mostly based on the international politics and conflict resolution. He can be mailed at [email protected])
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